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Real-time News
On November 12th, Prudential economist Robert Sockin stated that the divided US government following the midterm election results increases the likelihood of expanded executive action and a potential increase in tariffs from approximately 10% to near 15%, potentially sustaining inflationary momentum. While the midterm election results wont derail growth, they could lead to a prolonged period of slower capital spending, during which AI-related contributions to US GDP will slightly diminish by 2027. Prudential also continues to project a 100-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve, with the next hike in December, followed by quarterly hikes thereafter. They currently see a 40% probability of their baseline scenario of an overheated US economy, down from 50% previously; meanwhile, they have revised their recession probability upward from a very low level to approximately 25%.On November 12th, at the Baidu World 2026 conference, Shen Dou, Executive Vice President of Baidu Group and President of Baidu Smart Cloud Business Group, revealed that the Kunlun Chip flagship M300 and the Tianchi 1024-card supernode are both planned to be launched to the market next year. By 2028, multiple chips based on the new N architecture will also be launched to the market. Shen Dou explained that a single 1024-card supernode can support model training with 5 trillion parameters and has the ability to scale to tens of thousands of cards. Through the upgrade of the new generation network architecture, a super cluster of up to 500,000 cards can be built, which can support the training of next-generation ultra-large-scale models.On November 12th, the turmoil at Nvidias top management has drawn attention to potential beneficiaries. In after-hours trading, shares of AMD, Broadcom, and Googles parent company Alphabet all rose, with the market betting that these companies could seize market share from Nvidia. Nvidias stock price initially plunged 9% in after-hours trading after reports that the companys board was preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. Following this news, AMD and Broadcoms stock prices both rose by more than 3%, while Alphabet rose 0.3%. Investors, while seeking to continue participating in AI investments, are also looking to hedge against Nvidia-related risks by allocating to other companies. This turmoil highlights the potential for further market volatility. Global technology research analyst Mandeep Singh stated that in the accelerator market, which Nvidia dominates, competitors such as AMD, Google, and Amazon may have an opportunity to increase their market share. Undoubtedly, Nvidias aggressive approach to setting and exceeding targets will likely be difficult to maintain at the levels of the past two or three years.November 12th - According to Japanese sources on the 11th, regarding the revision of the "Three Security Documents" this year, the Japanese government has begun studying the inclusion of an exception to the "No Nuclear Weapons" principle in the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles." This exception would allow nuclear weapons to enter Japan if the Japanese government determines that a situation requires a U.S. ship carrying nuclear weapons to dock in Japan to ensure Japans security.Apple futures contracts rose more than 3%, currently trading at 6,122 yuan per ton.
