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October 17th - Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs remarks failed to boost the dollar, which is poised to end a four-week winning streak. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4% on Friday, on track for its worst weekly performance since September 4th. The dollar weakened against most major currencies, while the euro rose, potentially ending a five-week losing streak. Warsh did not comment on monetary policy or the U.S. economy at the International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Bangkok on Friday morning, prompting investors to reduce their bets on a Fed rate hike later this month. This was Warshs last chance to hint at his policy stance before the Fed enters its quiet period ahead of its October policy meeting on Saturday. Noah Buffam, a strategist at CIBC Capital Markets, said, "Wash didnt provide any policy guidance. While this was expected at this stage, the market interpreted it as a signal that the Fed might not raise rates at its October meeting."The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently detected a suspicious aerial target in an area where IDF forces are operating in southern Lebanon and subsequently launched an interceptor missile. In accordance with protocol, no air raid sirens were activated.On October 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the EU summit in Brussels, Belgium on October 16, demanded at least €70 billion in additional aid from the EU next year. He also stated that restrictions on the use of the US Starlink satellite communication system affect the Ukrainian militarys ability to intercept Russian drones, and that a meeting at some level between Ukraine and the US is expected to be arranged in the coming days. Speaking to EU leaders, Zelenskyy said that Ukraines war-related expenditures are projected to reach €155 billion by 2027, and that Ukraine needs at least €70 billion from the EU for defense, weaponry, and strengthening national resilience. Zelenskyy called for a strong second round of sanctions against Russia, targeting companies and individuals involved in the production of Russian ballistic missiles, advanced communication systems, and drones. He also criticized the US-Russia "diesel deal," arguing that it would increase Russian revenue and fund its continued military operations.US lawmakers have introduced a bill to block Trump from making a diesel deal with Russia.Barclays: We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in December and January, compared to our previous forecast of a December rate hike.

AUD/USD is stuck at 0.6900 and is unwilling to move

Daniel Rogers

Jul 20, 2022 11:56

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Phillip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is now on the record saying that a hike in the cash rate is coming soon. The AUD/USD exchange rate is frozen at 0.69 as traders look for any hint from the governor of a 75 bp hike. However, so far in the speech, there has been no mention of such an increase.

 

The RBA said in its minutes that it is prepared for additional monetary tightening to go along with its most recent unexpectedly large rate increase, and officials vowed to continue to be steadfast in their fight against skyrocketing inflation. This led to an increase in the Australian dollar on Tuesday. In light of the tight labor market and impending inflation, the board noted that current interest rates were "still reasonably modest."

 

The governor brought up the most recent job statistics, which were released last week. According to this, Australia's net employment rose by 88,400 from May to June, which was more than three times the market expectation of a 30,000 rise. At the same time, the jobless rate decreased to a 48-year low of 3.5 percent. The Australian dollar is anticipated to appreciate along with threats from rising global inflation.