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On October 23, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that Europe is entering winter with historically low natural gas inventories and is struggling to withstand further supply shocks. Birol noted that Europe is particularly vulnerable due to its high dependence on Middle Eastern fuels. Europe was severely impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war against Iran. "The sooner the ceasefire is reached, the better," Birol said. He added, "Typically, European countries stockpile large amounts of natural gas before winter. But as we enter this winter, gas inventories are far below historical averages." Birol warned, "This year and next year will not be easy for Europe." "I think if we experience a severe winter, European natural gas prices could rise."On October 23, the Japanese government released its Energy White Paper for Fiscal Year 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026), which pointed out that the vulnerability of Japans energy supply and demand structure has been highlighted again as the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. The White Paper noted that Japan has long relied on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports. Following the US and Israels military strikes against Iran in late February this year, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy transport route, was disrupted, leading to uncertainty in the supply of crude oil and petroleum products, and consequently hindering the flow of some petroleum-related products such as naphtha.October 23 - Data released by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) on Friday showed that a Maltese-flagged tanker carrying 40,000 liters of Russian diesel fuel was en route to New York. This followed an agreement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Under the agreement, Russia agreed to lift its unilateral ban on diesel exports and supply diesel to global markets, including the United States, in an effort to lower fuel prices.The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) reported that orders for chip manufacturing equipment in Japan increased by 48.2% year-on-year in September.On October 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi condemned the military relationship between the United States and Israel, calling it a "parasitic relationship." In a social media post, Araqchi stated that over the past three years, the United States has used "$11 billion of taxpayer money to provide missile defense for Israel." He also claimed that Washington has launched "even more interceptor missiles than Israel itself" to protect Israel. This comes less than two weeks before US voters elect members of Congress in the midterm elections. Polls show significant public dissatisfaction with US involvement in the Middle East conflicts.

As US NFP steals the spotlight, we expect the XAU/USD to drop to roughly $1,700 in the near future

Daniel Rogers

Aug 29, 2022 14:38

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After setting a new monthly low of $1,723.44 in the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is now indicating a less confident downward trend. The Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for price stability over growth on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, therefore the precious metal is projected to continue its downward trajectory for some time.

 

The Federal Reserve has little leeway to decrease the pace of its interest rate hikes in August due to signals of inflationary pressures. While economic activities in the United States showed significant slowing down because of decreasing liquidity in the economy. Market veterans anticipated that the Fed would slow the pace at which it was rising interest rates in light of the two factors. To counteract this, the Fed prioritized maintaining price stability.

 

The future of the United States hinges on the information provided by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. We anticipate the economic statistics to come in at 290k, which is a decrease from the 528k reported in the previous release. The slowdown in job growth should not be seen as a huge concern by investors. Since the US economy has been at full employment for the past six months, much of the room for new jobs has been eliminated.

 

Gold prices have fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (set at $1,729.35 from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10) on an hourly time frame. Both the 20-period and the 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are trending downward, adding further filters to the downside at $1,738.08 and $1,745.84, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the negative zone of 20.00-40.00, indicating further declines ahead.