Bank of Canada, Canadian Dollar, USDCAD, Inflation

The Bank of Canada (BoC) chose to increase its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), the highest increase in more than two decades. Additionally, the BoC announced that quantitative tightening (QT) would begin on April 25th, as the central bank seeks to combat three-decade high inflation. According to the policy statement, "interest rates will need to rise further" because inflation has exceeded previous predictions for 2022. Notably, inflation predictions were revised significantly upward, with the Bank of Canada now expecting inflation to hover around 6% for the most of the first half of 2022.

Canada, like other central banks, has struggled to curb price pressures. In January, the Bank of Canada forecasted first-quarter inflation of 5.1 percent. However, it is on track to exceed 6%, much beyond the BoC's aim of 2%. Due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, economists worldwide have been obliged to revise their inflation and growth forecasts.

The BoC also confirmed its balance sheet reduction plans, with the central bank opting not to replace maturing bonds. QT is scheduled to begin on April 25, with around a quarter of the government debt acquired during the pandemic (approximately C$350 billion) maturing during the next 12 months. 

USD/CAD 1 Hour Chart

Despite the Bank of Canada's rise, the USDCAD continues to trend higher. The cross briefly declined in nine consecutive sessions, with the Canadian Dollar's rise supported by increasing oil prices. This decrease peaked on April 5th near 1.2402, and has since recovered significantly. A fall in risk appetite has resulted in a significant bid for the USD in recent days, with the US Dollar Index gaining for the last ten days. With the USDCAD firmly on the rise, any dips may be bought as we approach the May FOMC meeting, at which the Fed is likely to hike rates by 50 basis points and announce plans for balance sheet reduction.