EUR/USD
1.11356
0.094%
Gold
4040.82
-0.475%
Oil
101.906
2.390%
USD/JPY
158.273
0.209%
GBP/USD
1.32985
-0.054%
GBP/JPY
210.484
0.163%
Real-time News
October 29th - Markets are closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs upcoming press conference. Some economists expect the Fed chairman to adopt a "hawkish pause" strategy. Former Fed Vice Chairman Blinder stated, "I think this precisely illustrates why forward guidance is so important." Blinder explained, "The hawkish aspect of what many expect from a hawkish pause can only be conveyed through forward guidance—that is, through communication and statements. If its just holding back, then theres no action at all." Blinder pointed out that the Fed faces a dilemma in this decision-making process because policymakers can provide ample justification for either maintaining the current interest rate or raising it. Blinder said, "But this dilemma is actually self-inflicted by Warsh—because he previously downplayed the role of forward guidance."The Federal Reserves FOMC will announce its interest rate decision in ten minutes.Airbus CEO: If youre looking for bad news, I dont have any.October 29th - Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged tonight, less than a week before the midterm elections. A key question is: how will Fed Chairman Warsh rationally explain the decision to "keep rates unchanged" as the latest inflation report shows signs of renewed price increases? Deutsche Banks chief U.S. economist, Matt Luzetti, predicts that Warsh will convey the message that recent inflation data further confirms the need for future rate hikes, and that holding rates steady in October allows policymakers more time to assess the trend. However, Luzetti points out that Warsh needs to learn from his July press conference and avoid repeating the mistakes made then, which caused confusion and raised doubts about the Feds commitment to a credible strategy to curb inflation. Luzetti stated, "Warsh will certainly go to great lengths to avoid sending any signal that the Fed is unwilling to take the necessary action against stubborn inflation."On October 29th, Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at Schwab, stated in an analysis: "Theres an old saying on Wall Street: Dont fight the Fed. This means that markets often experience significant volatility during a Fed rate hike cycle." He pointed out that historical data shows the S&P 500 has seen an average maximum decline of over 10% within 12 months of the Fed initiating a rate hike cycle. He added, "However, from a macro perspective, the current economic environment remains relatively favorable for Fed rate hikes. Therefore, even in a cycle with multiple rate hikes, we believe the economy is likely to remain robust." Stock prices often react to the Feds interest rate moves, but this is only one of many factors influencing the investment environment and stock prices. Currently, investment in artificial intelligence and inflation driven by rising oil prices appear to be the main drivers of the stock market.
