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October 12th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 81.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 18.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 15.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 69.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.7%.The notice indicates that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is urging U.S. airlines to exercise caution when flying to or over Saudi Arabia.On October 12th, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO) issued a notification stating that an oil tanker was attacked by a drone near its anchorage in Sohar, Oman, on October 11th. The notification stated that the UKMTO initially received a report of a security incident involving an oil tanker. It was subsequently confirmed that the tanker was attacked by a drone, and the UKMTO has officially classified the incident as an "attack incident." Local authorities are currently assisting with the evacuation of the crew. The extent of the damage to the tanker and the potential environmental impact of the incident are still unclear, and the incident is still under investigation.The UK Maritime Trade Organization has reclassified the incident at the Sohar anchorage in Oman as an attack. The tanker was attacked by drones, and local authorities are assisting with the evacuation of the crew.On October 12, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal held a telephone conversation on the evening of October 11 to exchange views on the current regional situation. Araqchi expressed concern about the escalating regional tensions and emphasized that insisting on military means while ignoring a political solution would only further complicate the current situation. Araqchi stressed that there is no military solution to the regional crisis and that Iran is willing to provide all possible assistance to facilitate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and ultimately reach a political solution.

Copper Increases on China's Reopening, While Gold Remains Flat Ahead of Payrolls

Skylar Williams

Jan 06, 2023 11:43

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Gold prices remained at seven-month highs on Friday as markets awaited a crucial nonfarm payrolls report from the United States, while copper prices reversed weekly losses in response to China's easing of new anti-COVID measures.


After a series of significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022, it is projected that nonfarm payrolls in the United States slowed marginally in December, signaling a slight softening of the labor market. Nevertheless, given that the number has consistently surpassed forecasts for eight straight months, speculators fear that any indication of labor market resiliency will provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility for further aggressive steps.


As of 19:50 E.T., spot gold climbed 0.1% to $1,834.53 per ounce, while gold futures declined 0.1% to $1,839.25 per ounce (00:50 GMT). Nevertheless, it was anticipated that both assets would gain 0.5% this week, marking their third consecutive week in the black.


Recent Fed indications that the central bank will likely raise interest rates at a slower pace in 2023, following a series of quick rises in the preceding year, have boosted the price of gold. Fears of an imminent recession in 2023 increased the demand for safe-haven assets, which drove up the price of metal.


Nevertheless, central bank policymakers have indicated that they will likely retain higher interest rates for an extended length of time, with inflation control as their major priority. Given that inflation is well above the Fed's target rate of 2%, there is a great deal of uncertainty about where U.S. interest rates will peak.


In order to temper its aggressive stance, the Fed has also signaled that it will seek a softening of the labor market. Nevertheless, despite headwinds from a slowing economy, the U.S. labor market has been resilient thus far.


Gold significantly outperformed other precious metals over the week due to demand for safe-haven assets. This week, platinum futures decreased by 1.3%, and silver futures decreased by nearly 3%.


Copper prices were stable among industrial metals following a dramatic reversal of recent declines on Thursday, when the Chinese government said that the Hong Kong border will reopen on January 8.


The action signals a relaxation of other anti-COVID rules in China and has bolstered hopes for a nationwide reopening. Copper futures remained flat at $3.8252 per pound and poised for a third straight week of gains following Thursday's gain of more than 2%.


Despite this, China has witnessed an exceptional spike in COVID-19 cases since December, when limitations were relaxed. Analysts have warned that this trend could delay the reopening of the larger market and cause volatility in the near future.


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