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According to Politico: Microsoft President Brad Smith dismissed US Vice President Vances allegations of visa fraud, calling them "completely untrue."On October 15th, Pan Gongsheng pointed out that escalating geopolitical conflicts remain the biggest uncertainty for the global economy. Significant fluctuations in some countries sovereign debt markets and the risk of valuation corrections in AI-related assets have exacerbated financial vulnerability. Promoting the modernization of financial regulation does not equate to relaxing regulation, and should not undermine the stability and risk resilience of the financial system. All parties should make full use of the G20 financial cooperation platform to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and jointly address global risks and challenges. Regarding global imbalances, all parties should have a more comprehensive analytical perspective. We cannot only look at the current account; we must also pay attention to financial channels, especially as global financial integration deepens, and we should pay more attention to the impact of financial factors such as capital flows on imbalances. Global imbalances cannot be addressed through exchange rate adjustments. Exchange rates are affected by a variety of factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitics, and unforeseen risk events, and do not have a simple linear relationship with the current account. Deficit and surplus countries should work together to achieve a dynamic balance in the global economy.On October 15th, at the JD.com 11.11 launch event, it was announced that JD.com will create the 11.11 shopping festival with the deepest AI applications and the widest coverage of scenarios this year. Data shows that JD.coms JoyAvatar digital human, available 24/7 online, has served over 90,000 merchants this year, with the number of merchants using digital human live streams increasing by 340% year-on-year.The Gulf Cooperation Council announced that the Gulf-EU summit has been rescheduled due to Houthi attacks.On October 15th, Tmall held a press conference for its Double 11 shopping festival. Tmall President Jialuo stated in a media interview that Double 11 cannot revert to its original form of simply offering a 50% discount across the entire platform. He explained that the original Double 11 format primarily involved selling limited-quantity items. Now that it has become an event with hundreds of millions of consumers and millions of merchants participating, Double 11s focus is not on 50% discounts, but on merchants offering the lowest genuine discounts of the year.

Despite contradictory inflation indicators from China, USD/CNH recovers to approximately 6.7700

Daniel Rogers

Jan 12, 2023 14:43

USD:CNH.png 

 

After dipping to roughly 6.7550 during the Asian session, the USD/CNH pair has risen. Despite China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing contradictory Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, the asset has recognized demand and extended its recovery to near 6.7700.

 

The annual CPI has remained unchanged at 1.8%, which is in line with forecasts and higher than the prior statement of 1.6%. In contrast, the price index at the factory gate has decreased dramatically, indicating that producers have less negotiating power. In contrast to forecasts, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.7% rather than 0.1%.

 

The swiftness with which the Chinese government reopened the economy after a lengthy suspension to combat the Covid-19 epidemic has instilled optimism among market participants. The market anticipates a sharp improvement in economic prospects and foreign trade.

 

Morgan Stanley analysts have increased their forecast for China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year to above 5%. "If policy can reduce obstacles to the housing/property sectors and COVID zero recovery, China's economic recovery should strengthen beginning in the second quarter of this year," they added.

 

In the interim, risk-sensitive assets are performing well due to investors' enhanced risk appetite, as indicated by the S&P 500 futures' string of weekly increases. The 10-year US Treasury rates have decreased to 3.55 percent due to optimistic market attitude. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has encountered resistance above 102.80 and has swung to the south in advance of U.S. inflation data.

 

Analysts at Wells Fargo believe that a further decline in energy costs will weigh on the headline and balance price rises in food and core services. However, the price decrease will also be assisted by a further decline in core products, led by used autos once more.


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