Gold Falls Below $1,900; The dollar Soars As The Fed Prepares to Double Its Rate Hikes

On Monday's session on the New York Comex, an ounce of the yellow gold returned to the $1,800 level.

This came as the dollar strengthened on expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike rates by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, at its May policy meeting next week — more than double the 25 basis points, or quarter point, approved in March, the first increase in the post-pandemic era in the United States.

On Monday, Comex front-month gold futures for June finished down $38.30, or 2%, at $1,896 an ounce. On April 18, June gold reached a six-week high of $2,003 on concerns that the US could enter recession as a result of strong Fed attempts to rein down inflation. Gold is frequently used as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty.

Over the last week, a series of Fed speakers assuaged market concerns that the economy would turn negative as a result of the central bank's efforts to contain price pressures developing at their highest rate in 40 years.

While fears of a hard landing have not completely vanished, optimism, particularly regarding the sterling job market, has won over some pessimists. This has resulted in the dollar surging – the primary beneficiary of a rate hike — at the expense of gold and other safe-haven assets.

The Dollar Index, which compares the US currency to six main rivals, touched a 25-month high of 101.745 on Monday.

US bond yields, which frequently move in lockstep with the dollar, have recently decoupled from the greenback. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for the third consecutive day, dropping about 4% on the day.

While risk aversion across the board drew investors to safe-haven assets, gold's near-term charts showed the possibility of a rebound to the $1,900 lows, at the very least, following the week's loss of more than $100. 

"Gold has begun to exhibit oversold conditions on a daily basis, which may result in a short-term relief rally, albeit not necessarily a reversal," Dixit explained. "The $1,925 to $1,935 level remains a hurdle, but a rebound is probable." If history is any guide, gold will almost certainly find buyers at lower prices."

On the other hand, he noted, a Comex settlement below $1,888 will exacerbate gold's troubles.