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On October 15th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazakowski stated that, faced with multiple conflicting forces in the global economy, the ECB has the time to analyze inflation trends without immediately taking interest rate action. In an interview, the Latvian central bank governor pointed out that continued rises in oil and gas prices are expected to keep consumer price increases high, but the recent sell-off in government bonds may also begin to dampen economic activity. Kazakowski, who is attending the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, said, “My feeling is that inflationary pressures will continue to prevail in the short term. Therefore, the direction of monetary policy is clear, even if there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates at present. We are not behind the times, and in that sense, we are in a favorable position.” Kazakowski emphasized that the upside risks to inflation “still outweigh the downside risks to economic growth.” However, he noted that the threats to economic growth “may exhibit a more pronounced non-linear characteristic.” He said, “The trade-offs facing monetary policy will become increasingly complex. So far, decisions have been relatively easy, but there is currently a great deal of uncertainty, and the predictability of future developments is very low.”On October 15th, former European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi stated that the ECB is unlikely to provide aid to France through market intervention in the short term. The former central bank governor, who led the Eurozones response to the sovereign debt crisis, said on Thursday that the Eurozone is still far from a repeat of that crisis, and the current economic environment means that the likelihood of the ECB intervening in France remains low. Speaking at an economic forum in New Delhi, Draghi said, "The threshold for intervention is very high." He pointed out that during the Eurozone debt crisis, the Eurozone faced more deflationary pressures, "or at least inflation was only slightly above zero." Now, "inflation is high and still rising. I think the ECBs primary task remains fulfilling its mandate to maintain price stability."Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez: We disagree with the current EU budget plan; it is insufficient.On Thursday, October 15, the Hang Seng Index closed down 251.45 points, or 1.03%, at 24,062.72; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 113.48 points, or 2.72%, at 4,060.99; the H-share Index closed down 79.9 points, or 0.98%, at 8,103.27; and the Red Chip Index closed down 41.47 points, or 1.02%, at 4,022.58.Bank of England Deputy Governor Briden: The businesses Ive spoken to are talking about cutting costs rather than dealing with energy price shocks.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will fall below $1870 as yields rise ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 14:55

截屏2023-01-09 下午5.31.06_1024x576.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has fallen below the immediate resistance of $1,870.00. The precious metal has broken through the consolidation formed in the band of $1,870.00-1,881.50 as demand for US government bonds deteriorates ahead of the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.54 percent, dampening risk appetite. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have become volatile following a sell-off late in Monday's session, signaling caution in establishing positions in risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to attempt a break above the immediate resistance of 103.00 into the auction area.

 

Investors anticipate Fed Powell's speech for fresh cues, as it will provide a head start for the entirety of CY2023. Despite a sharp reduction in December wage inflation, some Fed policymakers continue to endorse a terminal rate prediction of 5.00-5.25%.

 

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed Bank, argued that interest rates between 5% and 5.25 percent are fair. Also, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank, Raphael Bostic, anticipates an interest rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25 percent and the continuation of higher interest rates through CY2023.