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On October 14th, Citigroup analysts stated that ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, plans to expand its chip manufacturing equipment capacity, coupled with some customers expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, indicating that the visibility of the companys future demand is continuously improving. Citigroup analysts pointed out that market discussions surrounding ASMLs stock are increasingly shifting towards the scale of capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond, and the potential boost to the companys profit margins from rising equipment prices and increased adoption of high-end lithography machines. ASMLs CFO, Roger Dassen, stated that the company has completed pricing negotiations with major customers, and the impact of related price adjustments is expected to gradually appear from 2027 onwards. Citigroup believes that as customer visibility into future equipment procurement demand increases, market focus on ASML is shifting from short-term order performance to longer-term capacity growth potential, and the potential for profit margin improvements driven by changes in high-end equipment sales and pricing.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Stock prices "appear to be under pressure" amid the AI boom.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Central banks are concerned that energy-driven inflation will spread further.On October 14th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes at its October meeting but is expected to raise rates again in December. Lin noted, "If inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, and the market itself is already concerned about price pressures, this could prompt a reassessment of the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, as well as the terminal interest rate level of this tightening cycle." However, Russell Investments emphasized that the current inflation environment is significantly different from that of 2022. The firm believes that many of the factors that drove inflation soaring in 2022 no longer exist, so the current situation should not be simply compared to that time. Lin stated, "This should help limit the upside potential for inflation, and also limit the ultimate height the federal funds rate needs to rise." Russell Investments believes that although short-term inflation data may still influence the Feds policy pace, the need for further significant interest rate increases may be limited as some of the previous inflation drivers fade.Bank of England Chief Economist Peel: To achieve a 100 basis point adjustment, we need more concrete evidence about the risks.

Gold trading strategy on October 12: Gold prices continue to trade sideways, waiting for CPI data to be released on Wednesday

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Tuesday (October 12), spot gold rose slightly, and the short-term gold price is expected to remain sideways. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see, and radicals can still short rallies.


Daily level: The price of gold continues to fluctuate. The market mainly waits for Wednesday's US CPI data to guide the gold price. Before that, it may be difficult for the price of gold to make a difference. It is recommended that conservatives wait and see. Activists continue to short rallies as the market continues to bet that the Fed will cut its debt purchases in November.

The important resistance above is at 1764, the 38.2% retracement level of the 1834-1721 range. The bulls also encountered resistance here on September 30. If this resistance can be broken, the bulls are expected to usher in a respite and move towards the 50% retracement level. 1778 opened the door.

Breaking through the 50% retracement level and the resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1778, the bulls will enter the comfort zone and further point towards the 61.8% retracement level at 1791.

The important support below is the 23.6% retracement level of 1748, after the gold price has repeatedly found support near this level. A break below this level may further slide to the low of 1721 on September 29. Prior to this, the low of 1738 on September 23 is worthy of attention.

(Spot gold daily chart)

Resistance levels: 1764.93; 1778.22; 1791.52
Support levels: 1748.49; 1738.12; 1721.76

Short-term operating recommendations: conservatives wait and see, radicals short rallies.

GMT+8 14:05, spot gold was quoted at US$1,761.47 per ounce.