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On October 11, US President Donald Trump announced Saturday evening the appointment of Katie Bailey (a former Republican aide who previously worked in Congress) to head White House liaison and strategy with Congress. Bailey will succeed James Blaid as Director of the Office of Legislative Affairs, who left in September. This office is responsible for coordinating the nomination and confirmation process for cabinet positions, maintaining relations with Congress, and advancing the White Houses legislative priorities. Bailey has served as Deputy Director of the Office of Legislative Affairs since early summer. She previously served on the nominations of Republican Senators Mike Braun of Indiana and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and has served on several committees. Trump praised Bailey for her excellent work in assisting with the confirmation of Homeland Security Secretary Mullin, Director of National Intelligence Clayton, and Labor Secretary Keith Sanderling, stating that she has "achieved remarkable results." Trump posted, "Katie has worked on Capitol Hill before, and she understands how the executive and legislative branches can work together most effectively to achieve great success for the American people."1. Ukrainian military claims to have struck Russian oil depot in Samara. 2. Ukrainian sources say death toll from Russian attacks in Zaporizhia has risen to 20. 3. Sources: US envoy may visit Moscow within two weeks. 4. Trump: Ukraine should not attack oil refineries; suggests a change in the Ukrainian president. 5. Zelenskyy speaks with leaders of several European countries. 6. Kremlin: Putin expressed "understanding" of some of Trumps proposals regarding de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine during the call.October 11th - The UK government has established a new task force to address extreme weather, including the risk of flooding this winter. Following a record-breaking summer of high temperatures, the task force will meet this week to assess the UKs preparedness for potentially wet, windy, and stormy weather in the coming months, which the Met Office has described as a "significantly increased" likelihood. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Emma Hardy stated before the meeting: "We are facing extreme weather, with the risks of flooding and drought intertwined, but the government is taking decisive action." The Environment Agency warned that approximately 6.3 million homes and businesses in England remain at risk of flooding. Hardy said: "We will put communities and businesses at the heart of our work to ensure that the UK is prepared to handle any weather conditions that may arise in the future." The Met Office stated that current seasonal forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall this autumn due to El Niño. The Met Office warned that this years El Niño could be the strongest in memory, expected to peak at the end of the year.The UN Special Envoy to Yemen strongly condemns the Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure. The Houthi attacks represent a serious escalation and add complexity to the situation. The envoy reiterates the call for the Houthis to cease their attacks on Saudi civilian targets.On October 11, U.S. Central Command stated that on October 10, Central Command forces rendered a commercial cargo ship inoperable in the Gulf of Oman after its crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to break through a maritime blockade against Iran. A U.S. fighter jet used a precision-guided weapon to strike the stern of the Panamanian-flagged "Ocean Molica," completely disabling the ships propulsion system, but causing no casualties among the crew. The large cargo ship had departed from an Iranian port and was attempting to traverse the regions waters. Central Command forces reinstated a blockade against all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports on July 14. During the three-month period of strict enforcement, four merchant ships were rendered inoperable, and 135 vessels were ordered to turn back. In addition, during the same period, the U.S. military destroyed 10 oil tankers linked to the Revolutionary Guards multi-billion dollar "shadow network."

Institutions lowered their expectations for gold and silver prices, and do not believe that the 2013 plummeting market will recur

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

Gold is still trading below US$1,800. BMO Capital Markets believes that there is not much good news in the gold market in the fourth quarter of this year.



The agency once again lowered its expectations for gold and silver prices. In a report released last Thursday, analysts said that the Fed’s new hawkish tendencies will suppress precious metals for the rest of this year and next year .

Analysts pointed out in the report: “As inflation spreads in the value chain, many central banks have either begun to cancel loose monetary policy, or at least begin this journey, which also includes the Federal Reserve. Although negative real yields should prevent Macro assets are rapidly shifting from commodities to precious metals, but it is reasonable to be cautious about precious metals until the scale of bond purchases is reduced."

According to the bank’s latest forecast, analysts expect the average price of gold this year to be around US$1,781 per ounce, which is 1% lower than their previous forecast of US$1,803. At the same time, the bank predicts that the average price of gold in 2022 is approximately US$1,656 per ounce, which is also 1% lower than the previous forecast of US$1,669.

The bank also predicts that this year's silver price will average around US$25.10 per ounce, which is 3% lower than the previous estimate of US$25.9. By 2022, the average price of silver is expected to reach around US$24.90 per ounce, which is 2% lower than the previous forecast.

Although the Bank of Montreal has a slightly more pessimistic view of gold and silver, they pointed out that these two precious metals are "declining, but they are not out."

Analysts said that they do not expect the gold market to reproduce the plunge in 2013. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve began to implement monetary policy normalization, which led to a sharp drop in the price of gold.

Compared with the infamous “taper tantrum” in 2013, the price of gold has been performing well so far. In 2013, the price of gold plummeted by nearly 30% in six months. Although there was a large outflow of funds from ETFs in the first quarter, especially in North America, and the Fed is expected to reduce the scale of bond purchases by the end of the year, the Bank of Montreal capital market believes that there is no sufficient reason to withdraw from gold.

As for silver, the Canadian bank still believes that this precious metal has long-term potential. Analysts said: "We expect investors to have positive sentiments regarding the long-term industrial uses of silver, especially those related to the energy transition, to support silver prices in the short term."



Spot gold daily chart

At 8:34 on October 5th, GMT+8, spot gold was quoted at US$1766.59 per ounce.

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