International crude oil is falling, NYMEX oil price is expected to fall to 73.83 US dollars, OPEC+ may further relax the "oil brake"

On Friday (October 1), international oil prices fell because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may increase the planned production increase to ease supply concerns. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $73.83.

At GMT+8 16:09, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.76% to $74.46 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.65% to $77.80 per barrel.


All eyes in the market are now on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (OPEC+) to be held next Monday (October 4). In addition to the 400,000 barrels per day in November and December promised by the existing agreement, oil-producing countries are expected to discuss other options.

Four OPEC+ sources said that it is possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or specific month. Another OPEC+ source said that there may be an increase of 800,000 barrels per day in the next month, and there may be no increase in production in the next month.

It is still unclear what caused this change in tone, but before that, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held a meeting to assess the market prospects, and it is expected that under its basic scenario forecast, the oil market will appear 140 next year. The surplus of 10,000 barrels per day is slightly lower than the previously predicted surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day.

Prior to the OPEC+ online meeting on October 4, negotiations between member states were still continuing, and there was no guarantee that they would agree to additional production. OPEC member states Iraq, Nigeria, and the UAE have stated in recent weeks that the organization does not believe it is necessary to take special measures to change the existing agreement.

Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said: “Given that oil prices are so high, they are likely to further increase production. The last time we saw oil prices of US$80, there was much more supply than we are now. I think given that Global energy is tight, and the international market may now need more supply."

Energy Aspects, a consulting agency, expects OPEC+ to extend its decision to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December. The agency's analyst Virendra Chauhan said that Brent crude oil needs to be maintained at more than $80 to prompt OPEC+ to make such a change.

ANZ Research analysts said in a report: "The OPEC+ meeting to be held next Monday will be critical to the direction of oil prices next week. If production increases by more than 400,000 barrels per day, it will ease the upward pressure on oil prices in the short term."

White House Press Secretary Psaki said that the US Biden administration has expressed concern about high oil prices, which was discussed when US National Security Adviser Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Salman earlier this week.

As the global natural gas price soars, power producers have turned to using fuel oil or diesel to generate electricity, driving up oil prices. Power plants in Pakistan, Bangladesh and many countries in the Middle East have begun to replace fuel.

ING commodities analysts said in a report: "This shows that we should continue to witness strong oil demand in the next few months, which means that oil supply and demand will be tighter than expected before the end of the year."

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave starting from $61.74, and the recent resistance above it looks to the 23.6% target at $78.37. On the hourly chart, oil prices are in a downward (c) wave that started from 76.07 US dollars. The market outlook is expected to fall below the 61.8% target of 74.26 US dollars and drop to the 76.4% target of 73.83 US dollars. Wave (c) is a sub-wave of the downward ((iv)) wave that started from US$76.67, and wave ((iv)) is a sub-wave of three upward waves that started from US$67.58.