International gold prices are stable, investors are waiting for non-agricultural data; ETF market supports bears

On Friday (October 8), international gold prices were basically stable, and the volatility narrowed further, as investors waited for the US non-agricultural employment report to be released in order to seek more trading guidance from it. The report will determine the pace at which the Fed will reduce its easing process in the future.

At 15:39 GMT+8, spot gold price fell slightly by 0.02% to US$1755.37 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.22% to US$1755.3 per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 94.326.


As the summer peak of new crown virus infections begins to fade, US job growth may accelerate in September, boosting the demand for high-contact services such as dining out, and allowing the Fed to start reducing the scale of monthly debt purchases.

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for OANDA Asia Pacific, said that as local investors buy precious metals to hedge against risk events, gold has gained support during the Asian session. But he added: "The final trend of gold prices will be determined by tonight's non-agricultural employment report. If the number of new non-agricultural jobs in September is no less than 500,000, there will be no suspense when the Fed starts to reduce the scale of debt purchases this year, which is expected to boost. U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar, gold is expected to resume its downward trend."

The market predicts that non-agricultural jobs in the United States may increase by 500,000 in September. The weekly jobless claims data released overnight showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States recorded the largest drop in three months last week. This indicates that the labor market recovery is experiencing the most recent as this wave of viral infections begins to recede. After slowing down, it is regaining momentum.

Fed Chairman Powell hinted last month that as long as U.S. employment growth is “reasonably strong” in September, the Fed can begin to reduce the size of its monthly debt purchases by US$120 billion after the November 2-3 policy meeting.

The U.S. Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling, which will be passed to the House of Representatives for final approval. The U.S. Senate on Thursday took a step toward passing a move to increase the Treasury Department’s $480 billion borrowing authority, which is sufficient to maintain the Treasury’s borrowing and spending until at least the beginning of December.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in an interview with CNN on Thursday that she is pleased to see that the Senate is taking action to suspend the debt ceiling, but she added that the implementation of the debt ceiling is causing more and more damage to the United States. The dangerous conflict has caused the American people and the global market to question whether the United States is paying its bills seriously."

According to the latest data released by the World Gold Council (WGC), the global gold ETF net outflow in September was 15.2 tons (approximately US$830 million, and the scale of asset management decreased by 0.4%); in the context of rising U.S. bond yields and a strong US dollar, gold prices fell , At the end of September, the total global gold ETF size fell to 3592 tons (2010 billion US dollars), the lowest since April.

In September, global gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) recorded net outflows for the second consecutive month; Asian funds recorded net inflows, which failed to offset the outflows of European and North American funds.