NYMEX crude oil expected to rise to $78.85

On Tuesday (October 5), international oil prices regained their multi-year highs touched by the previous day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (OPEC+) stated that they will stick to the existing agreement and gradually increase oil production. This news has driven oil prices to rise sharply. NYMEX crude oil may rise to 78.85 US dollars.

At 15:09 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.15% to $77.74/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.27% to $81.48/barrel.


The two cities closed up 2.27% and 2.56% respectively overnight, and set a new high of US$78.38/barrel since November 10, 2014 and a new high of US$82/barrel since October 14, 2018.

OPEC+ said on Monday (October 4) that it will maintain the current agreement to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month, ignoring calls from major global consumer countries such as the United States and India to accelerate production. This move is expected to further increase inflationary pressures, and consumer countries worry that inflationary pressures will undermine economic recovery.

The organization agreed in July to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day at least until April 2022, in order to gradually end the current 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction plan. The current reduction in production has been much lower than the reduction in production during the worst period of the epidemic.

Barclays Bank analyst Amarpreet Singh said in the report that OPEC+’s decision reflects the group’s internal expectations for next year’s surplus and limited domestic capacity for major oil producers, and lack of urgency to increase production. Given that the oil ministers only reiterated the decision announced in July, the jump in oil prices overnight "seems a bit too much, but it shows how tight the market is.

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74, breaking through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and ((3)) the 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in an upward ((v)) wave starting from $73.15, breaking the 138.2% target of $78.01, and the upper resistance looks to the 161.8% target of $78.85. ((v)) Wave is a sub-wave of three upward waves that started at 67.58 USD.