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On October 14th, Citigroup analysts stated that ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, plans to expand its chip manufacturing equipment capacity, coupled with some customers expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, indicating that the visibility of the companys future demand is continuously improving. Citigroup analysts pointed out that market discussions surrounding ASMLs stock are increasingly shifting towards the scale of capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond, and the potential boost to the companys profit margins from rising equipment prices and increased adoption of high-end lithography machines. ASMLs CFO, Roger Dassen, stated that the company has completed pricing negotiations with major customers, and the impact of related price adjustments is expected to gradually appear from 2027 onwards. Citigroup believes that as customer visibility into future equipment procurement demand increases, market focus on ASML is shifting from short-term order performance to longer-term capacity growth potential, and the potential for profit margin improvements driven by changes in high-end equipment sales and pricing.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Stock prices "appear to be under pressure" amid the AI boom.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Central banks are concerned that energy-driven inflation will spread further.On October 14th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes at its October meeting but is expected to raise rates again in December. Lin noted, "If inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, and the market itself is already concerned about price pressures, this could prompt a reassessment of the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, as well as the terminal interest rate level of this tightening cycle." However, Russell Investments emphasized that the current inflation environment is significantly different from that of 2022. The firm believes that many of the factors that drove inflation soaring in 2022 no longer exist, so the current situation should not be simply compared to that time. Lin stated, "This should help limit the upside potential for inflation, and also limit the ultimate height the federal funds rate needs to rise." Russell Investments believes that although short-term inflation data may still influence the Feds policy pace, the need for further significant interest rate increases may be limited as some of the previous inflation drivers fade.Bank of England Chief Economist Peel: To achieve a 100 basis point adjustment, we need more concrete evidence about the risks.

Oil Prices Near 2-Month Lows as Supply Concerns Ease

Haiden Holmes

Nov 21, 2022 11:27

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Oil prices remained at two-month lows Monday as supply fears abated and China's gasoline consumption and rising interest rates weighed on the market.


Brent oil futures for January slipped 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $87.34 a barrel, their lowest level since September 27.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures for December were trading at $80 a barrel, down 8 cents. January contract fell 21 cents to $79.90 per barrel.


Brent and WTI fell 9% and 10%, respectively, to their lowest prices since September 27.


Last week, the front-month Brent and WTI crude futures spreads narrowed sharply, reflecting diminishing supply anxieties.


As refiners stockpiled ahead of the December 5 EU oil embargo, tight crude supplies in Europe loosened, putting pressure on crude markets in Europe, Africa, and the U.S.


EU's energy policy chief told Reuters that the EU plans to finish its laws by December 5, when a G7 pact to regulate Russian oil prices takes effect.


RBC Capital analyst Mike Tran said the dismal December WTI contract expiry was due to paper market selling, not physical market weakness.


"Tight global inventories don't sustain barrel excess contango," he added.


Although North Sea and West African spot market indicators are weak, they don't imply alarm.


Europe and the U.S. fought for restricted diesel barrel markets. China's diesel exports nearly doubled year-over-year to 1.06 million tonnes in October, but were lower than September's 1.75 million tonnes.


COVID-19 restrictions continue to stifle demand in the world's leading crude importer, while expected interest rate hikes elsewhere have boosted the dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors.