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On October 15th, a U.S. official stated on Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on so-called "shadow fleets" of ships that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. This move aims to lower currently high global shipping rates. This comes shortly after President Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel fuel, a decision that drew strong criticism from Ukrainian President Zelensky, several European governments, and some Republican senators. The official revealed that the current discussion focuses on whether the U.S. should allow previously sanctioned ships to transport "legal oil." "Legal oil" here refers to crude oil or petroleum products not subject to U.S. sanctions, rather than Russian and Iranian oil restricted by sanctions. The official stated that this move aims to encourage more refined petroleum products and crude oil to be shipped out of the Gulf region.A research report from CICC states that they expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October and resume in December. However, a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes does not necessarily mean a shift towards looser monetary policy; the Fed is likely to maintain a relatively tight policy stance over the next year.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 3.5 basis points to 2.335%.On October 15th, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics (CREW) filed a lawsuit on Wednesday against Jared Kushner, President Trumps son-in-law, seeking to prevent him from serving as a key government diplomatic envoy on a volunteer basis without disclosing his personal finances and potential conflicts of interest. CREW argues that Kushners deep involvement in major U.S. diplomatic affairs should make him a formal government employee, subject to relevant financial disclosures and ethical standards. Kushner currently runs an investment firm managing billions of dollars in foreign assets and is involved in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine, and the U.S. and Iran. Kushners lawyers claim the lawsuit has no legal basis and state that external ethics compliance advisors and government ethics lawyers have confirmed that his volunteer service arrangements comply with regulations. The White House maintains that Kushners business activities are unrelated to diplomatic work and that he bears all related expenses himself.October 15th - South Koreas KOSPI index fell below 6000 points, down 5.59% on the day. SK Hynix fell over 7%, and Samsung Electronics fell over 6%.

Positive China PMI and IMF growth forecasts pressure mid-0.7000s bears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 31, 2023 16:55

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Due to risk-positive data from China and the International Monetary Fund, AUD/USD challenges the two-day downtrend while gaining bids off the intraday low (IMF). Despite this, purchasers appear to be having difficulty regaining control ahead of this week's high-level central bank summit. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7055 in the early morning hours of Tuesday, following a recent comeback from the intraday low of 0.7038.

 

Recently, the IMF increased its global growth forecasts and predicted that the growth slowdown in developing markets bottomed out in 2022. The global lender also noted a slight improvement in the global GDP forecast for 2023, citing "particularly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, a reduction in energy prices, and the reopening of China's economy after Beijing abandoned its stringent COVID-19 laws.

 

Prior to that, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, compared to 49.7 market expectations and 47.0 previously, while China's Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4, compared to 51.0 market forecasts and 41.6 previously.

 

The recent risk-on profile may have been bolstered by the declaration that the administration of US President Joe Biden is prepared to withdraw the Covid-led emergencies beginning on May 11. Monday, Reuters reported that China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) claimed, "China's current wave of COVID-19 infections is nearing a conclusion, and there was no significant increase in cases during the Lunar New Year holiday."

 

Earlier in the day, the AUD/USD exchange rate was impacted by dismal Australian Retail Sales for December and a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. The fact that Australian Retail Sales declined 3.9% in December, as opposed to the projected -0.3% decline and the previous figure of 1.9%, is noteworthy.

 

S&P 500 Futures exhibit small increases despite Wall Street's lackluster performance, while 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.54% after three consecutive days of gains.

 

The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index for January will be widely monitored for direction in the near future. According to the market consensus, the US Consumer Mood Index may rise, but a forecast lower print of the US ECI, to 1.1% from 1.2%, might bolster the Fed's dovish stance and bring back AUD/USD buyers.


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