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On October 15th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazakowski stated that, faced with multiple conflicting forces in the global economy, the ECB has the time to analyze inflation trends without immediately taking interest rate action. In an interview, the Latvian central bank governor pointed out that continued rises in oil and gas prices are expected to keep consumer price increases high, but the recent sell-off in government bonds may also begin to dampen economic activity. Kazakowski, who is attending the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, said, “My feeling is that inflationary pressures will continue to prevail in the short term. Therefore, the direction of monetary policy is clear, even if there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates at present. We are not behind the times, and in that sense, we are in a favorable position.” Kazakowski emphasized that the upside risks to inflation “still outweigh the downside risks to economic growth.” However, he noted that the threats to economic growth “may exhibit a more pronounced non-linear characteristic.” He said, “The trade-offs facing monetary policy will become increasingly complex. So far, decisions have been relatively easy, but there is currently a great deal of uncertainty, and the predictability of future developments is very low.”On October 15th, former European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi stated that the ECB is unlikely to provide aid to France through market intervention in the short term. The former central bank governor, who led the Eurozones response to the sovereign debt crisis, said on Thursday that the Eurozone is still far from a repeat of that crisis, and the current economic environment means that the likelihood of the ECB intervening in France remains low. Speaking at an economic forum in New Delhi, Draghi said, "The threshold for intervention is very high." He pointed out that during the Eurozone debt crisis, the Eurozone faced more deflationary pressures, "or at least inflation was only slightly above zero." Now, "inflation is high and still rising. I think the ECBs primary task remains fulfilling its mandate to maintain price stability."Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez: We disagree with the current EU budget plan; it is insufficient.On Thursday, October 15, the Hang Seng Index closed down 251.45 points, or 1.03%, at 24,062.72; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 113.48 points, or 2.72%, at 4,060.99; the H-share Index closed down 79.9 points, or 0.98%, at 8,103.27; and the Red Chip Index closed down 41.47 points, or 1.02%, at 4,022.58.Bank of England Deputy Governor Briden: The businesses Ive spoken to are talking about cutting costs rather than dealing with energy price shocks.

Rabobank forecasts that USD/JPY will hit 135 before readjusting to the 132-130 region later in the year

Daniel Rogers

Jun 13, 2022 15:34

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Inflation rates in the United States exceeded all forecasts. Rabobank economists anticipate that the USD/JPY pair will rise to 135 in the near future before falling to the area of 132-30 later in 2022.

USD/JPY is largely dependent on the forecast for US rates

The strength of the US inflation report for May raises the prospect for further USD/JPY rises over the next one to three months to 135. This presupposes that the Bank of Japan will retain its present loose monetary policy at its June meeting, which looks quite probable."

 

"We continue to be skeptical about the prospect of genuine FX intervention, since this would directly contradict the BoJ's monetary policy." It would also violate the commitment Japan has maintained for years as a member of the G7 to let the market determine currency rates."

 

We anticipate that lower US rates will let USD/JPY to return to the range between 132 and 130 later in the year.