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On October 28th, Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at French asset management firm Carmignac, stated in a report that the US inflation rate remains significantly higher than the Federal Reserves 2% target, and from an economic data perspective alone, another rate hike by the Fed would not be unreasonable. Therefore, he believes the reasons why the Fed might keep rates unchanged on Wednesday need to be examined from other angles. Thozet stated, "Financial conditions have tightened, the stock market is experiencing volatility, and pressure is beginning to appear on the fringes of the credit market." These factors provide justification for the Fed to pause rate hikes, but this does not necessarily mean that the Fed will shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance.On October 28, US President Donald Trump stated that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be arranged "soon." Trump told reporters that day, "Were making a lot of progress on the Russia-Ukraine issue. A meeting will be arranged very soon, and I think we can make a lot of progress."On October 28th, Citigroup released a research report stating that ASMPT (00522.HK)s third-quarter results were largely in line with expectations. Driven by advanced packaging, mainstream SEMI business, and SMT, revenue reached HK$5.247 billion, a 49% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, meeting the previous guidance of US$630 million to US$690 million. Net profit was HK$533 million, lower than the market expectation of HK$578 million, but still in line with Citigroups estimates. Management expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between US$670 million and US$730 million, implying a midpoint of approximately 38% year-on-year growth, about 9% higher than market expectations, and the lower limit is also higher than market expectations. Citigroup reiterated its "Buy" rating on ASMPT with a target price of HK$250, optimistic about the demand for advanced packaging supported by order trends.UBS: Investor sentiment remains cautious amid heightened macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty (including in the United States).UBS Group: Plans to complete a $3 billion share buyback program before announcing fourth-quarter results; it had already repurchased $1.8 billion worth of shares in the third quarter.

Silver Prices Retain a Bearish Tendency in the Face of a Stronger Dollar

Daniel Rogers

Apr 28, 2022 10:31

Silver prices have continued to decline as the dollar strengthens. A rising dollar increases the cost of purchasing commodities like silver in foreign currencies, reducing demand. Benchmark yields were diverse but remained relatively stable in the face of persistent global market volatility.

 

Gold prices fell as the dollar strengthened to its greatest level since the pandemic's outbreak. The dollar is supported by the potential of aggressive rate hikes and the dollar's safe-haven allure in light of China and Europe's concerns.

 

Oil prices fell as the volatile market anticipated Chinese stimulus to boost oil consumption amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

 

Asia faces a stagflationary future, the IMF indicated, as commodity prices continue to rise and economic growth is anticipated to slow.

 

Pending home sales, a metric based on contract signings, fell 1.2 percent from the previous month for the fifth straight month. The Northeast had an increase in pending house sales, while the other three regions saw a decline. The index decreased 8.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

 

The precipitous decrease in contract signings implies that rising mortgage rates have harmed people's ability to purchase a home, despite continued demand.

Technical Evaluation

Today's trading session saw silver prices fall to a two-month low of 23.20. Despite global risk and uncertainty in China, a stronger dollar has kept silver prices in check. Silver prices will continue to decline as Core PCE and US GDP support a 50-basis-point rate hike in May and at the following meetings of the Federal Reserve.

 

Silver prices will face downward pressure if they go below the $23.00 level, testing lows in the $22.00 range.

 

Near the November 2021 lows near $23.00, there is support. Resistance is indicated near the 200-day moving average's old support level of 23.84. Momentum is negative in the short term but has converged as the fast stochastic may have a crossing buy signal.

 

The medium-term momentum has shifted to the downside, as evidenced by the histogram's negative correlation with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram's trajectory is negative, indicating a downward trend in price movement.

 

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