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October 14th - According to sources, Portugal has selected Lufthansa Group to acquire up to 44.9% of TAP (Portugals Portuguese airline), bringing a partner to the state-owned airline and ensuring its long-term survival. Sources indicated that the Portuguese government made this decision at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Previously, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM Group had both submitted revised offers for TAP shares. In addition, another 5% of TAP shares are reserved for company employees. Lufthansa previously stated that TAP aligns with its multi-airline, multi-hub operating model and will strengthen the groups market position on routes from Europe to Brazil, Latin America, and Africa. The German airline also pledged to retain Lisbon as its aviation hub.According to a Redfin report, there are currently 63% more home sellers than buyers in the United States, marking the largest supply-demand gap in at least 13 years.October 14th - Market expectations are that US overall inflation will rise 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year in September. This expected year-on-year data suggests that price growth is further deviating from the Federal Reserves 2% inflation target. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that this CPI report comes only two weeks before the Feds next interest rate decision. Analysts stated, "Regardless of which direction the data surprises, it will affect market judgments for the next Fed meeting. This is because the Feds official PCE inflation data will not be released until after the October interest rate decision (on the evening of October 29th)."Morgan Stanley reported a third-quarter profit increase on October 14th, with its equity trading revenue significantly exceeding analysts expectations and its wealth management business setting a record for net asset growth. Morgan Stanleys earnings report released Wednesday showed that equity trading revenue reached $5.8 billion, higher than the market expectation of $4.9 billion. Meanwhile, its closely watched wealth management business attracted a record $232 billion in net asset growth. Morgan Stanley stated that half of this net asset growth was related to initial public offerings (IPOs). The banks investment banking team participated in several large IPOs this year, including SpaceXs IPO. Elon Musks aerospace company is also a client of Morgan Stanleys corporate employee services business, which provides equity incentives, retirement plans, and other executive services to corporate employees. Following the 2008 financial crisis, Morgan Stanley management restructured its business, shifting its focus more towards wealth management and reducing its reliance on trading and investment banking. Driven by a series of acquisitions, the banks wealth management business has expanded to $8.4 trillion.October 14th - According to the Financial Times, US consumers are facing a new round of grocery price increases as diesel and freight costs soar. Rising transportation costs could further drive up grocery inflation, putting pressure on grocery prices on US supermarket shelves. The rising cost of groceries could reignite this politically sensitive issue, as candidates in the US midterm elections have already made grocery prices a campaign issue.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Early Gains

Cory Russell

Dec 29, 2022 14:37


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Initially attempting to rise during Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 eventually gave up gains and lost momentum due to the thin markets' lack of current interest. The 3800 level underneath should be sustained, but if we decline below that, it would be possible to slide considerably lower, maybe as low as the 3700 level.


At this point, rallies ought to be fading, therefore the 3900 level and the 50-Day EMA can serve as a ceiling from which to resume shorting. When signs of fatigue start to surface, they will be pounced on, and I won't think twice about shorting them. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to be negative, although it's possible that unreliable money managers may attempt to pad their books towards the end of the year. This is a frequent occurrence since they must at least demonstrate to their customers that they possess the "proper stocks."


It appears like Wall Street will sometimes need a reminder that the Federal Reserve is dead serious, which is an issue that the Federal Reserve itself caused by coddling traders for 14 years, so I believe it's just a matter of time until we continue to go lower. In light of this, I am prepared to short this market gradually during rallies and when it begins to show symptoms of tiredness. However, at this time of year, I am not expecting for large swings, so you must see this through the lens of short-term trading.

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