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Real-time News
On October 15th, the IMF stated on Thursday that the protracted conflict in the Middle East, and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes, or critical infrastructure, pose the greatest risks to economies in the Middle East and Central Asia. Jihad Azur, Director of the IMFs Middle East and Central Asia Department, said the war has caused a highly uneven economic impact across the region, with countries directly affected by the conflict under immense pressure. He pointed out that pre-war supply surpluses, alternative shipping routes, demand adjustments, and large-scale depletion of inventories helped mitigate the energy shock. Azur stated, "But these buffers are limited. Inventory levels are now low, spare capacity is tighter, and if supply is disrupted again, it could trigger a much larger price adjustment." Azur indicated that the IMF projects the economies of the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan to grow by 3.3% in 2025, followed by a sharp contraction of 1.3% in 2026, and then a strong but uneven recovery in 2027, with an expected growth rate of 6.6%. He also emphasized the significant differences among the economies in the region.An IMF official said that Egypt has made good progress in macroeconomic development, but still needs to make further efforts to reduce the states influence on the economy.On October 15th, the IMF stated that Saudi Arabias fiscal buffers and backup oil export facilities are helping the Middle Easts largest economy mitigate the impact of the war with Iran. Despite the further escalation of the conflict this month, with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launching deadly attacks on Saudi Arabias main airports, the IMFs Middle East director believes that Saudi Arabia is better equipped to withstand the turmoil than other Gulf states. Jihad Azur, Director of the IMFs Middle East and Central Asia Department, said during the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, that Saudi Arabia "has demonstrated its resilience in this crisis." He said this is not only due to the size of Saudi Arabias reserves but also to its infrastructure investments, which have enabled the country to readjust its oil export routes in a very short time.International Monetary Fund officials say they will send a delegation to Lebanon in November to continue discussions.An IMF official said: "We had good discussions with the Lebanese authorities in Bangkok, and these will continue in the coming weeks."
