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The euro/dollar exchange rate has dipped below 1.00 as markets await Jackson Hole and the Fed's inflation target

Alina Haynes

Aug 26, 2022 15:19

 截屏2022-08-26 上午10.00.50.png

 

Falling below 0.9965 during Friday's Asian session, the EUR/USD emerges from hiding after three days. Reports concerning the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed's cautious tone leading up to Chairman Jerome Powell's talk at the Jackson Hole Symposium, not to mention the critical US PCE inflation data, may be to blame for the recent dip in the main currency pair.

 

Bears in the EUR/USD pair, who are worried about higher inflation in the bloc, were faced with a challenge late Thursday when Reuters reported unnamed sources saying that ECB reinvestments could continue alongside rate hikes. The latest developments in China, Taiwan, and Iran might possibly drag the price down.

 

According to Reuters, the United States suspends 26 Chinese carrier flights in retaliation to China's stance, which renews Sino-American antagonism and bolsters demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. The number of American diplomats stationed in Taiwan may have increased in tandem with the island's escalating military spending. In addition, the previously unconcerned attitude was called into question after a letter quoting Vice President Joe Biden said, "The United States bombed Iranian-backed troops in Syria to defend American people both at home and abroad."

 

It should be remembered that the mixed prints of Germany's IFO statistics and an upward revision to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) combined with the hawkish European Central Bank's (ECB) July policy meeting tended to favor the bulls prior.

 

On the other side, US dollar bulls were undeterred by higher US numbers and contradicting Fed statements. Furthermore, China's stimulus of nearly a trillion dollars may put downward pressure on the currency.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest daily gain in a week, while rates on 10-year US Treasuries declined to 3.03% from a high of 3.100% the day before. Consequently, the S&P 500 Futures are down 0.10 percent intraday as of press time.

 

Going forward, EUR/USD swings will depend on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's ability to defend bold moves during his yearly Jackson Hole address.

 

In addition, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, will be quite important. According to projections, annual growth will slow to 4.7% from 4.8%, while monthly growth may slow to 0.3% from 0.6%. It's worth noting that the September GfK Consumer Confidence Survey results for Germany, forecast at -31.8 versus -30.6 previously, could possibly affect the EUR/USD in the short term.

 

The EUR/USD pair is now being capped by a declining trend line that has been in place for the past two weeks at the 1.0000 parity level. The bears are currently looking for the 0.9900 level before focusing on the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair's May-August advances near 0.9855.


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