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According to Japans Kyodo News, Japan plans to hold a summit with Vietnam in Tokyo in November to discuss energy and security issues.The document shows that the rotating presidency of the European Union has proposed cutting the EU budget for 2028-2034 by 8% to €1.6 trillion; the European Commission had previously proposed €2 trillion.On October 10th, Mercedes-Benz USA (MBUSA) announced a recall of 30,064 vehicles, affecting multiple 2022-2025 S-Class and Maybach models. According to the recall notice from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the problem lies with the front brake hoses—the hoses may rupture and leak brake fluid, leading to increased braking distance and a higher risk of collision. Dealers will replace the front brake hoses free of charge.The U.S. National Hurricane Center: Isaias weakened into a post-tropical cyclone after making landfall in Florida.On October 10th, Michael Theurer, a member of the Executive Board of the Bundesbank, stated that the recent sell-off in European bonds is a "clear warning sign" of investor anxiety regarding governments efforts to control debt. "Current developments indicate that fiscal and political uncertainty is impacting the government bond market. There is no systemic sovereign debt crisis at present, but the risks have increased significantly." The French bond market experienced a sharp decline due to heightened concerns about political and economic challenges in France. This turmoil has spread to other heavily indebted eurozone countries, fueling speculation that the European Central Bank may ultimately have to intervene to contain the shock. Theurer believes that policymakers in France and throughout the eurozone seem "very aware of the stakes." Like the International Monetary Fund, the Bundesbank has called for a medium-term strategy to review spending and prioritize investments that promote growth. While Germanys fiscal situation is much better than other European and global countries, it also faces rising debt, thus requiring urgent fiscal consolidation.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.