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On October 18th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the global oil market has lost 2.2 billion barrels of oil due to the Middle East crisis. #DieselPricesAreAtHistoricallyHigh# During an interview with the Solovyov LIVE channel at Russian Energy Week, Novak said, "We are still seeing no recovery in supply through the Strait of Hormuz… There is a lot of volatility, the market is hoping for improvement, and prices remain high. But if this continues, I think prices will rise further." He believes that global oil and petroleum product reserves are being depleted. Novak also believes that if exports of oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz resume, the global oil market will return to balance within 1 to 1.5 years.On October 18th, it was reported that on October 17th local time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, regarding Ukraines access to Starlink, stated that no one in the White House had ordered a speed reduction. On October 14th, Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Viktor Beskrestnov posted on social media that SpaceX had imposed speed limits on the operational Starlink satellite internet system terminals overnight, and the Ukrainian military had not received any prior warning, resulting in the interruption of several missions. On the 15th, a source from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that the Starlink service used by the Ukrainian military had been restored to normal. On the 17th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine had obtained evidence through comparative tests conducted in EU countries showing that the speed limit on Starlink satellite communication terminals was only effective within Ukraine.Conflict Update: 1. UKMTO reports tanker attack near Saudi waters. 2. Iranian Navy claims increasing number of tankers damaged due to "illegal" passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Houthi rebels claim Saudi Arabia launched 53 airstrikes against Yemen in 24 hours. 4. Yemeni Houthi rebels claim to have shot down a Saudi Apache helicopter. 5. Iranian armed forces open fire to intercept vessels "illegally" passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims two supertankers struck mines and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. 7. Saudi-led coalition: Intercepted and destroyed four drones in Riyadh and eastern and southern regions. Peace Talks: 1. Iranian Foreign Minister reiterates seven-day passage plan: next steps depend on the US. 2. Trump reiterates the war with Iran will end soon, gasoline prices will fall. Other Updates: 1. Egyptian President says he will provide protection for Saudi Arabia. 2. Yemeni Parliament Speaker urges Egypt not to get involved in the war. 3. Yemeni Houthi rebels release 159 detainees. 4. The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran met to discuss the Middle East crisis. 5. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: Oil prices will surge further if the Strait of Hormuz closure continues. 6. Israeli Prime Ministers Office: Violence against European diplomats is "unacceptable." 7. US media: Iran provided Houthi rebels with target location and intelligence to assist their attacks on Saudi Arabia. 8. According to the Wall Street Journal: The Houthi rebels have reportedly established joint command centers in Lebanon and Iraq. 9. Pakistan temporarily closed its border trade route with Iran; Iranian Foreign Minister: Border crossings and exchanges are temporarily suspended. 10. US Central Command spokesperson: The Strait of Hormuz remains open to navigation; approximately 97% of transit vessels were not hit by Iran.According to RIA Novosti, the Russian Interior Ministry stated that the black market is flooded with weapons from the conflict zones in Ukraine.Saudi Arabias Civil Defense Ministry said the alert for Riyadh has been lifted.

While waiting for PBOC and PMIs data, the AUD/JPY pair temporarily retreats to around 94.20

Daniel Rogers

Aug 22, 2022 14:52

 

 

The early Tokyo session saw the AUD/JPY currency pair hit a momentary pause in the rise around 94.20. Since the start of today's trading session, the risk barometer has shown a strong open-drive action, with the asset climbing significantly. The temporary roadblock is expected to go sooner rather than later as investors anticipate a dovish tone from the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

 

Australia is China's largest trading partner, which is worth noting. The antipodes will reap the benefits of the PBOC's easy monetary policy as a result. Enhanced Chinese liquidity will benefit Australia's exports and the country's budget.

 

The Australian bulls held firm last week despite a sharp drop in the country's employment report. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease of 40,900 jobs when a gain of 25,000 had been forecasted. However, it was determined that the unemployment rate should be 3.4% rather than 3.5%, thus that number has been adjusted downward.

 

And yet, yen bulls showed no signs of buying despite an increase in the national consumer price index (CPI). When compared to the expected 2.2% and the prior reading of 2.4%, the actual economic data came in at 2.6%, which is an increase. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may take a wait-and-see approach if inflation continues to run above 2% for an extended period of time.

 

In the future, information from IHS Markit's S&P Purchase Managers Index (PMI) will be crucial. Forecasts call for improvements in both the Manufacturing PMI (57.3) and the Services PMI (54.9) in Australia. A rise to 51.8 and 50.7 in the Manufacturing and Services PMIs for Japan is possible.

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