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On October 14th, Citigroup analysts stated that ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, plans to expand its chip manufacturing equipment capacity, coupled with some customers expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, indicating that the visibility of the companys future demand is continuously improving. Citigroup analysts pointed out that market discussions surrounding ASMLs stock are increasingly shifting towards the scale of capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond, and the potential boost to the companys profit margins from rising equipment prices and increased adoption of high-end lithography machines. ASMLs CFO, Roger Dassen, stated that the company has completed pricing negotiations with major customers, and the impact of related price adjustments is expected to gradually appear from 2027 onwards. Citigroup believes that as customer visibility into future equipment procurement demand increases, market focus on ASML is shifting from short-term order performance to longer-term capacity growth potential, and the potential for profit margin improvements driven by changes in high-end equipment sales and pricing.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Stock prices "appear to be under pressure" amid the AI boom.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Central banks are concerned that energy-driven inflation will spread further.On October 14th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes at its October meeting but is expected to raise rates again in December. Lin noted, "If inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, and the market itself is already concerned about price pressures, this could prompt a reassessment of the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, as well as the terminal interest rate level of this tightening cycle." However, Russell Investments emphasized that the current inflation environment is significantly different from that of 2022. The firm believes that many of the factors that drove inflation soaring in 2022 no longer exist, so the current situation should not be simply compared to that time. Lin stated, "This should help limit the upside potential for inflation, and also limit the ultimate height the federal funds rate needs to rise." Russell Investments believes that although short-term inflation data may still influence the Feds policy pace, the need for further significant interest rate increases may be limited as some of the previous inflation drivers fade.Bank of England Chief Economist Peel: To achieve a 100 basis point adjustment, we need more concrete evidence about the risks.

As Oil Bulls Relax And US Inflation Is Monitored, USD/CAD Recovers Around 1.3350

Daniel Rogers

Feb 13, 2023 14:42

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The USD/CAD rebounds from a five-week low. After a solid employment report and an increase in oil prices, Loonie bears joined the market. Before the release of the US CPI, aggressive Fed comments and good US data test sellers.

 

After falling the most in five weeks the previous day, the USD/CAD is fluctuating around the middle of the 1.3300s in the early Asian session on Monday. Ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Loonie/U.S. dollar pair exhibits market consolidation amid mixed US signals.

 

After a strong Canadian employment report and a rise in WTI crude oil prices, the Loonie pair dropped the most since the beginning of January.

 

WTI crude oil reached a new monthly high of $80.48 the day before, despite market rumors that Russia may reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels in March to counter European penalties.

 

The Net Change in Employment for January in Canada increased to 150K from 15K expected and 69.2K revised. The unemployment rate was 5.0%, not 5.1%.

 

As evidenced by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments, the stronger Canadian employment report makes it tougher for the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hike trajectory, benefiting USD/CAD bears.

 

Nevertheless, preliminary US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February increased to 66.4 from 65.0 anticipated and 64.9 previously. This month, the UoM announced that inflation forecasts for the coming year jumped to 4.2% from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December. UoM said that long-term inflation estimates (5-year) stayed at 2.9% for the third consecutive month and remained within a narrow band of 2.9% to 3.1% for 18 of the last 19 months. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) from -0.1% to 0.1% based on revised seasonal adjustment variables.

 

Recent contradicting statements from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin and the US-China dispute over "unidentified objects" appear to challenge sentiment and boost the USD due to its safe-haven status.

 

S&P 500 Futures decrease as interest rates on US Treasury bonds increase, benefiting the US Dollar and USD/CAD buyers ahead of critical US inflation data.

 

Due to reports of a Fed policy shift, USD/CAD traders should monitor risk catalysts before to the January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday.


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