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On Wednesday, October 14, the Hang Seng Index closed down 31.05 points, or 0.13%, at 24,314.17; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 37.84 points, or 0.91%, at 4,174.47; the H-share Index closed up 8.45 points, or 0.1%, at 8,183.17; and the Red Chip Index closed down 9.12 points, or 0.22%, at 4,064.05.October 14th - Markets widely expect a significant rise in the overall US CPI for September, but the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to slow month-on-month, reducing the urgency for another Fed rate hike in October. The Fed raised rates as expected last month and signaled further rate hikes. However, weak September employment data, coupled with lower-than-expected PCE inflation in July and August, significantly cooled market expectations for an October rate hike. Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets, pointed out that if the core CPI monthly rate can remain in the 0.2% range in September, it would be sufficient to support the Fed holding rates steady in October. However, he also cautioned that this does not mean the debate over whether further rate hikes are necessary has ended.On October 14th, Jason Pride, Head of Investment Strategy and Research, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy at Glenmede, stated that this weeks CPI report is likely the most important data the Federal Reserve will see ahead of its October meeting. The most noteworthy aspect is whether service sector inflation remains stubbornly persistent. In the 12 months ending in August, service prices excluding energy rose 3.0%, above the Feds 2% target. The tug-of-war between different components is also important. A rising percentage of components above the target could indicate that price pressures are spreading from energy to a broader range of sectors.October 14th - Daniela Hathorne, senior market analyst at Capital.com, stated that Wednesdays US CPI data is expected to show overall inflation accelerating to around 3.7% in September, reflecting the impact of rising energy prices, while core inflation is projected to be around 2.5%. The difference between the two is particularly important to the Federal Reserve. The Fed raised interest rates in September but now faces the difficult task of curbing inflation without unnecessarily pressuring economic growth. The market currently prices in an approximately 80% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in October. Weaker-than-expected core data could reinforce this expectation and provide some relief to stocks and bonds; stronger-than-expected data could push yields higher again, putting new pressure on risk assets.The IEA monthly oil market report and the UK LME copper, aluminum, and nickel inventory changes up to October 14 will be released in ten minutes.

Before UK Employment And Japan GDP Data, GBP/JPY Recovers Above 158.50

Daniel Rogers

Feb 13, 2023 14:37

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In the early hours of Tokyo, GBP/JPY surpassed 158.50. After Friday's significant swings, it is anticipated that the cross's volatility will decrease. As the likelihood of scholar Kazuo Ueda being appointed the next Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) grew, the Japanese Yen witnessed extreme volatility.

 

According to the Nikkei Asian Review, the Japanese Cabinet is anticipated to appoint Kazuo Ueda as the next Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) when Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April. According to sources, the Japanese government would appoint former FSA Chief Himino and BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida as Deputy BoJ Governor.

 

The announcement prompted the Japanese Yen to climb perpendicularly, but Kazuo Ueda's assertion that the current monetary policy was appropriate halted the increase. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan reaffirmed that the administration will consider ending the decade-long expansionary approach under the new leadership of the Bank of Japan. Kazuo Ueda's divergent position on monetary policy diminished the likelihood of a withdrawal from accommodative monetary policy.

 

Investors are awaiting the Japan GDP (Q4) report on Tuesday. The growth of economic data is 2% annually and 0.5% quarterly.

 

British investors await employment data to determine the direction of the Pound. The three-month unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.7%. Without incentives, average earnings are expected to increase by 6.5%. The Bank of England (BoE), which is battling inflation, may confront additional obstacles.

 

If we achieve our goal of halving inflation this year, we will have some of the best growth prospects in Europe, according to the British minister of finance, Jeremy Hunt.

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