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On October 15th, it was reported that Blackstone Group (BX.N) has built a $200 billion data center portfolio and is collaborating with Google to develop its cloud computing business. Blackstone has also invested in AI labs like OpenAI, secured loans using Broadcom and Nvidia chips as collateral, and invested in power plants and data center cooling equipment. These moves indicate that the worlds largest alternative asset manager is comprehensively deploying its resources in artificial intelligence through various channels. Almost all private equity firms are investing in some area of the AI boom. However, while other institutions remain cautious about certain markets, Blackstone has consistently expressed strong optimism about the opportunities presented by AI. President Gray stated that investing in AI is "the most important thing" Blackstone is currently pursuing.On October 15th, Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party, lost her first parliamentary vote for prime minister. This result was widely expected, but she still has a chance to become prime minister. In Thursdays vote, Andersson received 99 votes, the same number as the Social Democratic Party, while 248 votes were against her, and two members were absent. She has not yet reached the necessary agreement with her allies to secure their support. Under Swedish law, parliament can hold a maximum of four rounds of voting on a prime ministerial candidate; if all four rounds fail, a new election must be held. This means Andersson may face another parliamentary vote in the coming weeks. Her chances of being elected would increase if she could reach an agreement with her allies on the composition of the next government in advance.The U.S. Geological Survey reported a 5.3-magnitude earthquake 43 kilometers north of Minchumina Lake in Alaska.According to Politico: Microsoft President Brad Smith dismissed US Vice President Vances allegations of visa fraud, calling them "completely untrue."On October 15th, Pan Gongsheng pointed out that escalating geopolitical conflicts remain the biggest uncertainty for the global economy. Significant fluctuations in some countries sovereign debt markets and the risk of valuation corrections in AI-related assets have exacerbated financial vulnerability. Promoting the modernization of financial regulation does not equate to relaxing regulation, and should not undermine the stability and risk resilience of the financial system. All parties should make full use of the G20 financial cooperation platform to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and jointly address global risks and challenges. Regarding global imbalances, all parties should have a more comprehensive analytical perspective. We cannot only look at the current account; we must also pay attention to financial channels, especially as global financial integration deepens, and we should pay more attention to the impact of financial factors such as capital flows on imbalances. Global imbalances cannot be addressed through exchange rate adjustments. Exchange rates are affected by a variety of factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitics, and unforeseen risk events, and do not have a simple linear relationship with the current account. Deficit and surplus countries should work together to achieve a dynamic balance in the global economy.

WTI is rangebound around $74.00 despite escalating recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:11

In the early Tokyo session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are fluctuating in a limited range around $74.00. The oil price is fighting to acquire a direction after a straight decline to about $73.00 from the important resistance of $81.00.

 

Despite the publication of reliable United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data, the black gold remained hidden in the woods. According to the organization, the United States economy has generated fresh 235K vs. the forecasts of 150K and the earlier release of 127K.

 

Solid payroll data from the United States is a double-edged sword for the oil price. No doubt, bigger demand for labor force is often essential to cater to bumper demand from companies to address operations, which displays a spectacular requirement of oil to execute operations. On the other hand, a tight US labor market will be hampered by greater wage inflation, which would leave the Federal Reserve (Fed) with no room to consider slowing the rate of policy tightening until the end of CY2023 and could spark recession fears.

 

TD Securities analysts noted in their analysis of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes that officials were largely in agreement about the need to tighten monetary policy in the near future. Therefore, it anticipates a rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) in February, followed by rate increases of 25 bps in March and May. It is anticipated that the Fed will agree on a target range for the Fed funds rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent by May."

 

Meanwhile, a considerable pace adopted by the Chinese administration in reopening the economy for spurting the volume of economic activity has resulted in an upside revision of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predictions. The National Bureau of Statistics increased China's real GDP growth for 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%, providing a stronger comparison base for 2022. This could result in a future increase in oil prices.

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